The Lancet Regional Health - Europe

Background People diagnosed with severe mental illnesses (SMI) including bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and psychosis are disproportionately exposed to adverse social determinants of health, contributing to premature morbidity and mortality. Social prescribing aims to address social risk factors for poor health by linking patients in primary care to community activities. However, whether people with SMI access social prescribing through primary care remains unexplored. Aims To describe prevalence of, and sociodemographic characteristics associated with, social prescribing consultations in patients with SMI in primary care. Methods Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified patients aged 18+ with a diagnosis of SMI between 2004-2019. We calculated the percentage of patients with SMI who received a social prescribing consultation between 2019-2023 and used logistic regression to examine associations between sociodemographic, health-related factors and social prescribing consultations and refusals. We used fixed effects analysis to determine whether a new diagnosis of SMI made between 2019-2023 was associated with an increased odds of receiving a social prescribing consultation. Results Among 112,334 patients with SMI, 0.8% received a social prescribing consultation in 2019 increasing to 9.5% in 2023. Between 2020-2023, older age (OR=1.18-2.34), being female (OR=1.16-1.31) and living in more deprived areas (OR=1.14-1.49) were associated with higher odds of receiving a social prescribing consultation amongst patients with SMI. Across all years, patients with SMI and depression (OR=1.32-1.92), diabetes (OR=1.19-1.35) or obesity (OR=1.17-1.54) also had increased odds. In 140,514 patients with time-varying SMI status, a new diagnosis of SMI was associated with higher odds of receiving a social prescribing consultation (OR=1.39, 95% CI 1.26-1.53). Conclusion Since 2019, social prescribing consultations among patients with SMI in primary care have increased and are reaching those in areas of higher deprivation and with greater health needs. Strategies to remove barriers to consultations among younger adults and males are still needed

Background: Previous studies indicated that regional fluctuations in COVID-19 impact were associated with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors early in the pandemic. It is unclear whether factors associated with regional COVID-19 mortality and SARS-CoV-2 infections changed over the course of the pandemic. Methods: We evaluated the association of ecological factors with municipality-specific COVID-19 mortality in the national population of Austria between January 2020 and June 2023. Analyses were conducted separately per calendar year and pooled across years via random-effects meta-analysis. Outcomes were analysed using univariable and multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression, including annually averaged environmental exposome exposure (including air pollution and UV radiation), socioeconomic, demographic and infection dissemination predictors with significance threshold set to p<0.005. Secondary analysis modelled SARS-CoV-2 infections using of negative-binomial model (NB). Two additional approaches for smaller predictor set selection were applied as sensitivity analyses. Results: Within the entire observation period 18,430 COVID-19 deaths were reported. In univariable analyses (pooled RR (99.5% CI)), COVID-19 mortality was significantly associated with the proportion of commuters (0.79 (0.73-0.86)), residents aged 75-84 (1.18 (1.01-1.37)) and [&ge;]85 years (1.29 (1.04-1.60)), residents with at most compulsory education (1.15 (1.02-1.29)), employed residents aged 15-64 (0.89 (0.85-0.93)), and homeowners (0.91 (0.83-0.99)), as well as with precipitation (0.94 (0.89-0.99)) and the average time with a mean temperature of 5-15 C (0.95 (0.90-0.99)). In multivariable analyses the share of population aged 85 or older (1.30 (1.09-1.54)) and home ownership (0.92 (0.87-0.98)) were independently significant. Mortality predictor estimates were relatively stable across pandemic years. Across 5,963,882 documented SARS-CoV-2 infections share of employed in 15- to 64-year-olds (1.01 (1.01-1.02)), part-time employment rate (1.01 (1.00-1.02)) and district level nursing care allowance recipiency (0.97 (0.95-0.98)) were associated with detected infections. Overnight stays, population 85 or older, income, compulsory education or less and air pollution all had multiple significant estimates with opposite directionality, leading to non-significant overall associations. Sensitivity analyses outcomes mirrored main analyses outcomes. Conclusions: Throughout the pandemic in Austria, demographic and socioeconomic factors were associated with COVID-19 mortality and infections, but many associations, especially for infections, were unstable over time. These findings underscore the importance of structural vulnerabilities in epidemic impact.

Background: The decline of mental health among adolescents in the UK over the past two decades has occurred amidst many societal and technological changes making it difficult to identify drivers of these trends. We aimed to identify which aspect of life showed the most rapid deterioration in satisfaction in the UK since 2009 and which aspects have become increasingly correlated with mental health. Methods: Between 2009 and 2024, 15,829 adolescents aged 10-15 rated their satisfaction with life as well as five aspects of life (family, friends, school, schoolwork, appearance), via the UK Household Longitudinal Study. Population-weighted regressions were used to estimate annual summary statistics on these items (means, proportions) and the relative associations between satisfaction items and socioemotional difficulties, as measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Meta-regressions estimated linear changes over time, with interactions testing for heterogeneity across sexes, age-groups, and household income. Results: Mean satisfaction with life dropped over the 16 years of study (B=-0.028, 95% CI=-0.034, -0.022), as did satisfaction with all five aspects of life. Satisfaction with school declined most rapidly (B=-0.027, 95% CI=-0.034,-0.020), becoming accelerated in the most recent 5-year window (2020-24; B=-0.139, 95% CI=-0.178,-0.099). The proportion of dissatisfied individuals rose most rapidly for schoolwork, particularly for females. Satisfaction with appearance became increasingly associated with general life satisfaction (B=0.009, 95% CI=0.005, 0.013, p<.001) and socioemotional difficulties (B=-0.051, 95% CI=-0.073,-0.029, p<.001) over time. Conclusions: Our findings add to international evidence for academic pressure and school environments as plausible drivers of recent declines in life satisfaction, particularly among female adolescents. Future studies should aim to identify the specific aspects of school life that are influencing adolescent mental health and the impact of existing educational policies on student wellbeing should be evaluated.

Health inequalities are often examined through single axes such as class or ethnicity, obscuring how these dimensions interlock. This study applies a longitudinal intersectional approach to examine physical and mental health trajectories across five generations in the UK. We analysed 14 waves of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009-2024) using longitudinal Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA). We modelled SF-12 physical and mental health trajectories for 398 intersectional strata defined by gender, ethnicity, occupational class, and generation. Physical health inequalities widened with age, consistent with cumulative disadvantage, while mental health inequalities were more evident among later-born cohorts. The 'Boomer' generation exhibited a relatively flat mental health trajectory across its observed age range. In contrast, 'Generation Z' had lower predicted mental health, particularly among White British women with no work history - a group with poorer predicted trajectories than their South Asian peers. Our study shows how health inequalities are structurally differentiated by cohort and intersectional position. Policy responses should support proportionate universalism, combining broad population-level support with intensified action for groups showing poorer health.

Objective: Overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence are major risk factors for health problems across the lifespan. This manuscript reports the current prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 4-17years living in Germany and compares them with previous population-based results. Methods: A representative, cross-sectional sample of 4-17-year-olds was drawn following a multistage sampling process. Analyses are based on weight and height of 3,978 individuals measured in the field by trained test instructors between 2023-2025. Overweight and obesity classification was defined using age- and sex-specific body-mass-index percentiles. To allow for comparability of prevalence estimates derived from previous assessment waves and other panel studies dating back to 2005, an alignment factor was derived using an inverse probability of participation weighting approach. Together with sampling weights, the alignment factor was applied to obtain current, representative prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity. Results: The aligned, weighted prevalence of overweight and obesity was 16.1% (95%CI[14.5-17.9%]), whereas prevalence of obesity was 6.7% (95%CI [5.5-8.1%]). Age- and sex-specific prevalence rates are reported and compared to previous waves. Conclusions: The current prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents aged 4-17 years living in Germany remains stable over the past two decades.

Background Italy experiences a substantial heat-related mortality burden, but evidence on cause-specific mortality across its heterogeneous climatic settings remains limited. We aimed to quantify cause-specific mortality attributable to summer heat in Italy at national and ecological region levels and to map its distribution across municipalities. Methods We analysed daily deaths classified by underlying cause in eight ICD-10 groups among individuals aged 18-64 years and 65 years or older across 7,864 municipalities during June-August, 2004-2023. Mortality data were linked to area-weighted ERA5-Land daily maximum temperature. Nonlinear temperature-mortality associations were estimated with Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models, fitted separately for each cause, age group, and ecological region, with municipality-level attributable fractions. Findings High temperatures were associated with mortality from a broad range of causes, particularly among individuals aged 65 years or older. Among the study population, heat-attributable fractions were highest for nervous system diseases (14.93%, 95% credible interval 14.22-15.69) and mental and behavioural disorders (14.47%, 13.55-15.39). Circulatory diseases accounted for the largest absolute burden, with 85,524 heat-attributable deaths (82,762-88,271) across the summers of the 20 years considered. Interpretation The mortality burden associated with summer heat in Italy extended well beyond circulatory and respiratory diseases, highlighting the relevance of a broader range of health outcomes. These findings support heat-health strategies that account for cause-specific and geographical differences in heat-related risk, with greater consideration of neurological and mental health outcomes alongside established cardiorespiratory risks. Funding NextGenerationEU (CUP: B53C23002660006); Imperial College Research Fellowship; NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Center (BRC: NIHR203323).

Background. Population-representative evidence on social inequalities in youth mental health from an intersectional perspective is limited. We investigated inequalities across multiple mental health outcomes among young adults and examined whether measures operated equivalently across social and intersectional groups. Methods. Cross-sectional analyses were conducted with 9,675 participants aged 23 years from the nationally representative UK Millennium Cohort Study (born 2000-2002). Self-reported outcomes included psychological distress (Kessler-6), probable serious psychological distress/'caseness' (Kessler-6 score [&ge;]13), psychological wellbeing (Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale; SWEMWBS), past-year self-harm, and lifetime suicide attempts. Measurement invariance analyses assessed comparability of the Kessler-6 and SWEMWBS across groups. Intersectional MAIHDA examined inequalities by sex assigned at birth, ethnic identity/background, sexual identity, and childhood poverty. Young people with lived experience of mental ill-health and/or social discrimination contributed to study design, interpretation, and reporting. Findings. Large inequalities were observed across all outcomes, with the largest disparities by sexual identity, followed by sex assigned at birth, childhood poverty history, and ethnic identity/background. Across intersectional strata, predicted psychological distress ranged from -0.27 to 1.32 SDs, and psychological wellbeing from -0.54 to 0.11 SDs. Predicted prevalence varied 6.99-fold (9.81% to 68.55%) for psychological distress 'caseness', 6.84-fold (8.60% to 58.79%) for self-harm, and 22.10-fold (1.96% to 43.32%) for suicide attempts. Young people at the intersection of sexual minority status, female birth sex, childhood poverty, and some ethnic minority identities/backgrounds experienced particularly poor outcomes. Most inequalities showed cumulative patterns consistent with additive expectations, although some intersectional groups experienced better or worse outcomes than expected. Accounting for measurement differences revealed inequalities that were otherwise undetected. Interpretation. Findings highlight the large extent of mental health inequalities when multiple dimensions of social (dis)advantage are considered, and the need to address both the social conditions generating these inequalities and the methodological assumptions shaping how they are measured and understood.

SARS-CoV-2 antigenic evolution continues to challenge strain-matched vaccination. For the 2026-27 season, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) identified XFG as the preferred antigen within the JN.1 family and Comirnaty XFG was authorised in the European Union in July, 2026. We studied 22 participants who received 30 microg of mRNA encoding XFG (Comirnaty XFG, BioNTech/Pfizer, Mainz, Germany) in September, 2026 and had paired serum available before vaccination and median 14 days afterwards. Median Wuhan-Hu-1 S1-specific IgG increased from 1600 BAU/mL (IQR 1118-2926) to 2914 BAU/mL (2117-4468), a 1.8-fold increase. Median RBD-binding ED50 increased from 116 (51.4-212) to 305.6 (170.8-434.6) for LP.8.1 and from 354.3 (129.2-558.2) to 832.9 (429-1175) for NB.1.8.1, corresponding to 2.6-fold and 2.4-fold increases, respectively (all p<0.0001). XFG-adapted vaccination increased neutralising activity against each tested variant. The GMT against XFG increased from 180 before vaccination to 894 afterwards (5.0-fold), and that against RV.1.3 increased from 121 to 599 (4.9-fold). GMTs increased from 117 to 386 for PQ.16.1.1 (3.3-fold), from 101 to 316 for XFG.1.1 (3.1-fold), from 629 to 1772 for LP.8.1 (2.8-fold), from 221 to 611 for NB.1.8.1 (2.8-fold), and from 228 to 642 for PJ.2.1 (2.8-fold). Neutralisation of BA.3.2.2 increased more modestly, from GMT 78 to 126 (1.6-fold; p=0.0009). Pre- versus post-vaccination neutralisation titres differed significantly for all variants (p<0.001). Despite the broad increase, post-vaccination neutralisation remained heterogeneous. Relative to LP.8.1, GMTs were 2.0-fold lower for XFG, 2.8-fold lower for PJ.2.1, 2.9-fold lower for NB.1.8.1, 3.0-fold lower for RV.1.3, 4.6-fold lower for PQ.16.1.1, 5.6-fold lower for XFG.1.1, and 14.1-fold lower for BA.3.2.2. These findings provide early human immunogenicity data after XFG-adapted mRNA vaccination. The largest relative increases were observed for XFG and RV.1.3, whereas LP.8.1 remained the most strongly neutralised variant after Comirnaty XFG vaccination and BA.3.2.2 the least. This pattern suggests broad boosting of cross-reactive humoral immunity without elimination of between-variant differences. The small, extensively pre-immunised cohort, short follow-up, absence of a contemporaneous vaccine-comparator group, and use of a pseudovirus assay limit inference. Our data characterise early antibody binding and neutralisation but do not establish durability or clinical effectiveness.

BackgroundSocial isolation (SI) is an established risk factor for chronic disease and mortality. How people travel, including the modes of transportation they use, may shape opportunities for social interaction and influence the impacts of SI. This study assessed heterogeneity of the association between SI and mortality across primary modes of non-commute transportation. MethodsWe analyzed cohort data from the UK Biobank, following participants aged 40-69 years from 2006 to 2022. SI at baseline was derived from three items and dichotomized. Cox models were used to estimate the association between SI and mortality, adjusting for socioeconomic factors, health behaviours, and comorbidities. Effect modification by participants primary mode of non-commute transportation was assessed using interaction terms with SI. ResultsThere were 490,114 participants with complete baseline exposure data. SI was associated with increased hazard of all-cause (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.34, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.31-1.38) and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.49, CI: 1.41-1.57). The association with cardiovascular mortality was stronger among participants who only used public transport compared with those who only used a car (interaction HR = 1.17, CI: 1.00-1.37). In contrast, using a car alongside active or public transport, compared to using a car alone, attenuated the association between SI and all-cause mortality (interaction HR = 0.93, CI: 0.87-0.99). ConclusionMixed transport, including a car, showed the greatest reduction in the association between SI and all-cause mortality. Our findings motivate further exploration of the role of transportation modes in enhancing social connection, mobility, and health.

Background Clostridioides difficile infections (CDI) continue to cause substantial morbidity and mortality, with increasing incidence in some countries post-COVID-19. Recurrence affects 10-20% of CDI patients: whether risk factors have changed over time is unclear, particularly post-COVID-19. Methods Using electronic health records from hospitals in Oxfordshire, UK, including results from community samples, we estimated the incidence of CDI recurrence across different calendar periods between 2000-2025. To investigate whether risk factors had changed over time, we used interaction tests within multivariable Fine-Gray regression models (modelling death as a competing risk), using backwards elimination, starting from 39 risk factors identified from the literature. Results Recurrence occurred within 1-year in 12.6%, 12.5%, 10.8% and 13.1% of CDI cases in "high virulence" 2003-2008 (n=527), "post-high virulence" 2008-2012 (n=252), "pre-pandemic" 2012-2020 (n=143) and "post-pandemic" 2020-2025 (n=110) periods respectively. The only factor with evidence of variation in its association with recurrence over time was surveillance classification (heterogeneity p=0.019; others p>0.05). Compared with hospital-onset cases, community-onset community-associated cases had increasing recurrence risks over time (subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs)=2.05 (95% CI 1.27-3.31) in "post-pandemic" and 1.86 (1.16-2.98) in "pre-pandemic"), especially compared to the "high virulence" era of the early 2000s (SHR=0.81 (0.56-1.16)). This heterogeneity persisted after adjusting for baseline blood tests as a marker of severity (heterogeneity p=0.022). Conclusions Compared with hospital-onset hospital-associated cases, recurrence risks increased for community-onset community-associated CDI cases over time. Recurrence is a key contributor to overall CDI incidence and the underlying causes of increasing risks with community-onset community-associated cases should be explored further.

Background: COVID-19 movement restrictions reduced social contact worldwide, curbing viral spread but with unequal economic consequences where social safety nets are limited. Little evidence exists on how these impacts varied by occupation, wealth and age in resource-constrained settings. This paper examined pre-pandemic contact and lockdown-related change. Methods: The paper documents analysis of a population-representative survey (N=8,499) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, during April-May 2021, capturing typical weekday contacts before and during the first COVID-19 lockdown. Negative binomial regression models assessed pre-lockdown contact counts by socio-economic characteristics, overall and by place (home, school, work, transport, entertainment); linear regression assessed predictors of lockdown declines. Results: Pre-COVID-19, respondents reported a median of 12 daily contacts (interquartile range [IQR] 4-47), with higher counts among manual labourers (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.00, 2.44), retail and public sector workers (IRR 2.33, 95%CI 2.09, 2.60) and students (IRR 2.59, 95%CI 2.38, 2.82), males, wealthier respondents, under-30s, and urban and agricultural estate residents. Counts were highest in schools. During lockdown, contacts fell across all subgroups to a median of 8 (IQR 4-28). Declines were greatest among those with most pre-COVID-19 contacts: urban (mean -17.5, 95%CI -19.53, -15.37) and agricultural estate residents (-18.1, 95%CI -19.99, -16.13), students and teachers (-17.7, 95%CI -19.82, -15.59), males and 30-44 year olds. Drops were greatest in schools and on transport. Conclusion: Reductions in contact under blanket lockdown varied markedly between subgroups and places in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Selectively targeting high-contact groups might have achieved similar transmission reductions while limiting economic damage, holding lessons for similar settings.

Background While overall application volume by ethnic minority doctors into UK postgraduate medical training has expanded significantly, workforce diversity varies substantially across specialties. Previous reports have suggested that doctors from certain ethnic backgrounds and international medical graduates (IMGs) experience lower likelihoods of securing training posts, but granular longitudinal evaluations across all specialty training levels and recruitment stages remained limited. Therefore, this study evaluates longitudinal trends in self-reported ethnicity and country of qualification across postgraduate medical training in England between 2021 and 2025, maps specialty representation, and tests the hypothesis that recruitment success rates differ significantly between ethnic minority and White baseline applicants. Methods We conducted a retrospective national longitudinal analysis of mandatory NHS specialty recruitment data across England from 2021 to 2025, encompassing over 300,000 applications across ST1/CT1 (entry-level) and ST3+ (higher specialty) pathways. Applicants were categorised into census-aligned broad and granular ethnic groups, alongside IMG classifications. Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using White graduates and internal sub-ethnic baselines as comparators. Specialty-level ecological correlations (Spearman's rho) were performed to evaluate whether international workforce reliance moderated ethnic recruitment disparities. Results Between 2021 and 2025, applicant volume expanded rapidly, with ethnic minority applicants and IMGs comprising numerical majorities. However, Asian and Black applicants experienced substantially lower odds of receiving training offers compared to White baseline applicants across multiple high-volume specialties (e.g., emergency medicine and anaesthetics at ST1, where Black applicants faced multi-fold reductions in success odds: OR 0.03 to 0.05, p<0.001). Granular analyses revealed notable intra-ethnic heterogeneity, including lower success among Pakistani and Bangladeshi applicants compared to Indian applicants. Furthermore, UK graduates maintained higher offer success than IMGs across most specialties. Ecological correlations demonstrated that higher international applicant reliance was moderately and significantly associated with wider recruitment disparities at higher training levels for Black applicants {rho}=-0.43, p=0.019). Conclusions Centralised medical recruitment in England exhibits some persistent ethnic and international qualification disparities despite rising application diversity. The findings highlight the necessity of disaggregating ethnic groups and addressing subjective evaluation vulnerabilities within multi-stage recruitment processes to foster equity. Trial registration: Not applicable

Objectives To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the prevention of long COVID (LC) in the Omicron era through an updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We performed an update of our previously published systematic review and meta-analysis of vaccination and LC risk (searches between 1 January 2022 and 1 March 2024). Databases (Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, Europe PMC, LILACS, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register) were searched for studies published between 1 March 2024 and 13 July 2026. Observational studies assessing the impact of vaccination on the risk of LC four or more weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Vaccines were restricted to those centrally authorised in the European Union. Random-effects meta-analyses, restricted to adults, were performed to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) of LC in three comparisons: vaccinated (any dose) versus unvaccinated; booster vaccination versus unvaccinated; and booster vaccination versus primary course vaccination only. Results Nineteen new studies were identified, of which ten were included in the updated meta-analyses alongside eight studies from the original review. The pooled OR of LC in vaccinated adults (any dose) versus unvaccinated was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; 13 studies). ORs were also lower for booster vaccination versus unvaccinated (0.73; 95% CI 0.65-0.82; 6 studies), and booster vaccination versus primary course vaccination (0.63; 95% CI 0.53-0.75; 6 studies). Significant associations between vaccination and lower LC odds were observed in subgroup analyses of mRNA-only vaccination and LC outcomes three or more months after infection. Conclusions This updated review and meta-analysis reinforces our previous finding that vaccination may reduce the burden of LC in the Omicron era, with booster doses potentially providing additional protection. Although evidence in high-risk groups now prioritised for vaccination in most countries remains limited, these findings clearly demonstrate the benefits of vaccination and support current seasonal vaccination strategies.

ObjectivesRespiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine policies have varied globally since their approval in 2023. In the UK, policy has adapted in line with National evidence generation such that from Autumn 2026 at-risk persons [&ge;]65 years old will become eligible for vaccination. Immunosuppressed persons <65 years will still not be offered protection. The objective of this study is to investigate the relative burden of RSV infection by age and immunosuppressed status (IC). DesignRetrospective observational cohort study using routine healthcare data from North West London Integrated Care System. ParticipantsPatients with a confirmed diagnosis of a respiratory viral infection (RSV, Influenza A and B, SARS-CoV2) between October 2021 and July 2025. Main outcomes measuresPrevalence and severity of RSV infection in immunosuppressed persons <65 years old, and to provide a comparative analysis with Influenza and SARS-CoV2 in a sub-cohort tested using a 4-in-1 combined rapid PCR test. ResultsDuring the study period, 1226 patients were diagnosed with RSV of whom 596 (48.6%) were <65 years old. In 1091 patients with clinical data, 341 (31.3%) were IC. Fifty (9.9%) patients <65 years old had severe infection (ICU admission or death within 28 days of diagnosis), of whom 14 (28.0%) were IC. Proportionally, 16.7% of all RSV-associated deaths and 55.1% of all ICU RSV-admissions occurred in adult patients <65 years old. RSV accounted for 665 (10.1%) infections confirmed by 4-in-1 viral PCR testing. Eight-nine (13.4%), 172 (9.3%) and 448 (12.0%) patients with RSV, Influenza A and SARS-COV2 experienced severe infection, of whom 32 (36.0%), 82 (47.7%) and 156 (34.8%) were <65 years old respectively. Eight (25.0%), 20 (24.4%) and 52 (33.3%) of patients <65 years old with severe infection were IC. On adjusted analysis, having an immunosuppressive condition increased the odds of a severe SARS-CoV2 infection, OR (95% CI) 1.36 (1.08-1.71) but not a severe RSV or Influenza infection. ConclusionsSevere RSV infections occur in persons <65 years old, with a significant proportion of patients having an immunosuppressive condition. Urgent research is needed to investigate the potential benefit of extending the current UK RSV vaccine policy to protect younger immunosuppressed adults.

Background Short-term weather conditions can trigger paediatric hospital admissions, but evidence remains limited on the health relevance of intraday temperature variability, humidity, and precipitation, and generally on which subgroups are most susceptible. Methods We conducted a nationwide case time-series study of Swedish children and adolescents aged 6-18 years using linked register data. Associations between daily mean temperature, intraday temperature variability, relative humidity, and precipitation and inpatient hospitalisations were estimated with Poisson regression (individual fixed effects) combined with distributed lag non-linear models over lags 0-21 days. Outcomes included all-cause hospitalisation and cause-specific admissions. Effect modification was examined by sex, age group, socioeconomic indicators, region, and calendar periods. Findings Among 4,638,247 children and adolescents in the cohort, 1,070,702 (23.1%) experienced at least one inpatient hospitalisation, contributing 1,736,169 hospitalisation events. All-cause hospitalisation increased with higher mean temperature, with risk highest at hot extremes. Intraday temperature variability showed a U-shaped association, with higher rates at both lowest and highest exposure levels. Relative humidity showed no association with hospitalisation risk. Higher precipitation was associated with increased hospitalisation risk, but estimates at high rainfall levels were imprecise. Stratified analyses indicated modest differences by sex and socioeconomic indicators, but clearer heterogeneity by age and region, with the highest risks among younger children and in East Sweden; associations varied across calendar periods and were imprecise for most cause-specific outcomes. Sensitivity analyses mostly showed that the main curve shapes were robust. Interpretation Short-term exposure to hot temperatures, both low and high intraday temperature variability, and higher levels of precipitation were associated with an increased risk of all-cause hospitalisation among children in Sweden, with clearer variation by age group and region than by sex or socioeconomic position. These findings support targeting paediatric climate-health preparedness and early-warning systems toward younger children and higher-risk regions such as eastern Sweden and extending such systems beyond mean temperature to include intraday temperature variability, a distinct, currently overlooked driver of risk that heat-focused systems are not designed to capture. Fundings This research was funded by Formas the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (grant no. 2023-01774 and 2022-01845) and the Swedish Research Council (2025-02804 and 2022-06599).

BackgroundCOVID-19 pandemic modified trends of infant bronchiolitis, leading cause of emergency room (ER) attendance in infants in high income countries, primarily due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Understanding recent pandemic-related epidemiological shifts could inform affordable prevention efforts to improve sustainability and coverage of prophylactic treatments beyond maternal vaccines and infant monoclonal antibodies. MethodsWe estimated incidence rates (IR) of bronchiolitis ER presentations in 0-6month olds in 2012-2023 in a region-wide cohort of almost 1 million births using administrative health data from Lombardy, Italy. To assess potential contributors, we investigated direct and indirect COVID-19-related factors, including disease severity, shape of the epidemic peak, parental health seeking behaviour and vaccine coverage. We estimated COVID-19 maternal vaccination associations using mothers-infants data linkages and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. FindingsCompared to pre-pandemic levels, IRs doubled in 2021-2023 (from 2 to [&ge;] 4/100 person-time). The surge could not be explained by changes in infant age at ER visit, clinical severity or in the shape of the epidemic peak. Adjusted models showed little support for a role of infant routine or maternal COVID-19 vaccination on bronchiolitis episodes (respectively hazard ratio 1.09, 95%CI: 0.98-1.22 and odds ratio 0.91, 95%CI: 0.76-1.09). InterpretationThe post-pandemic increase in infant bronchiolitis is likely driven by multiple epidemiological changes rather than a single factor. As maternal RSV vaccination and infant RSV monoclonal antibodies are introduced and scale up, identifying these mechanisms will be critical to maximise their public health impact, inform complementary prevention strategies, and improve preparedness for future RSV epidemics.

Introduction: This study compared the health and economic impact of the 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (aPCV21) vs the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and post-meningitis sequelae (PMS) among adults aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A published Markov model was used to simulate a single-cohort of vaccine-naive adults who became eligible for age-based vaccination at age 65 years, with uptake occurring over time. The cohort was followed until a maximum age of 100 years. Model inputs were derived from publicly available national health data and published reports. Outcomes were discounted at 3.5% annually, and costs were adjusted to the 2024 Great Britain Pound ({pound}). Additional analyses explored the impact of changing the age-based recommendation from 65 years to 75 years. Scenarios involving instantaneous vaccine uptake rates were included as part of the sensitivity analyses. A deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed on the incremental direct medical costs between vaccinating with aPCV21 vs PCV20 under the age-based recommendation of 65 years. Results: Using an age-based recommendation of 65 years, aPCV21 led to fewer cases, deaths, and costs than PCV20. Compared with PCV20, aPCV21 averted an additional 138 IPD cases, 1 PMS case, and 22 IPD deaths, saving {pound}1.2 million in direct medical costs. Raising the age-based recommendation from 65 to 75 years and using aPCV21 (or PCV20, respectively), resulted in 120 (92) additional IPD cases, 2 (1) additional PMS case(s), 19 (14) additional IPD death(s), and an extra {pound}1.1 ({pound}0.8) million in direct medical costs. The deterministic sensitivity analysis showed that aPCV21 reduced direct medical costs across all parameter ranges. Conclusions: Compared with PCV20, aPCV21 prevented more IPD cases, IPD deaths, and direct medical costs among older adults in the UK. Changing the age-based recommendation from age 65 to 75 resulted in worse health and economic outcomes. Key words. Pneumococcal infections; pneumococcal vaccines; vaccines, conjugate; serotype; United Kingdom; health costs

Background: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) improve cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity, and more recently they have been shown to be beneficial in patients with obesity and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Their role in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and T2D remains underexplored. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data pooled from the TriNetX platform. Patients with T2D and HFrEF who were initiated on GLP1-RA therapy during the period May-13-2026 to Jun-6-2026 were identified. One:one propensity-score matching with controls was performed. Time-to-event analysis was conducted to compare the one-year incidences of all-cause mortality and a primary composite outcome of acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and acute heart failure, between the two matched-cohorts. Secondary outcomes included individual components of the primary composite outcome and any inhospital encounter. Results: Two well-matched cohorts with 38,879 patients in each were formed. Patients treated with GLP1-RAs had a lower incidence of all-cause mortality (4.2% vs. 12%; absolute risk difference [ARD] -7.8, 95% CI -8.17 to -7.41; HR 0.4, 95% CI 0.34[boxh]0.38) and the primary composite outcome (32.5% vs. 48.3%; ARD -15.8, 95% CI -16.47 to -15.11; HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.57[boxh]0.60) compared to the control group. The GLP1-RA group were also at lower risk of all secondary outcomes compared to the control group. Conclusion: In a real-world study, GLP1-RA therapy was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with T2D and HFrEF.

Background Evidence on {beta}-thalassaemia carrier prevalence is fragmented across heterogeneous surveys and national summaries, leaving within-country variation and geographic concentration of carriers poorly resolved. This study characterises {beta}-thalassaemia carrier prevalence and carrier populations at high spatial resolution and identifies where additional data would most improve geographic coverage. Methods Using carrier-prevalence records curated through ITHANET, a global haemoglobinopathy resource, Bayesian geostatistical modelling generated high-resolution predictions across 25 countries. Predictions were integrated with population data to estimate national and subnational carrier numbers. Prediction uncertainty and gaps in existing survey coverage informed prioritisation of healthcare sites for additional surveys. Findings Predicted prevalence varied markedly within countries, and highest-prevalence areas did not coincide with the largest carrier populations. National mean prevalence was highest in Cyprus (12.99%), whereas India, China, and Pakistan had the largest carrier populations, together accounting for 81.21% of estimated carriers. Random five-fold cross-validation favoured a model capturing broad geographic patterns and location-specific variation. Predictive performance deteriorated when geographically clustered records were withheld together, indicating reduced reliability across larger gaps in geographic sampling and the need for additional data from poorly characterised areas. Survey prioritisation identified 183 healthcare sites across 17 countries for future carrier-prevalence surveys. Interpretation By distinguishing areas of high carrier prevalence, large carrier populations, and evidence gaps, this updatable framework provides a subnational evidence base to inform {beta}-thalassaemia prevention planning and guide future data collection, screening, and genetic counselling.

Background Psychiatric diagnoses and psychotropic medication use among children, adolescents, and young adults have increased in high-income countries, with concerns about geographic variation. We described national trends and geographic variation in Denmark from 2010 to 2025 and developed an interactive online tool to explore these patterns. Methods We conducted a nationwide, descriptive, repeated cross-sectional register-based study of all Danish residents aged 0-24 years in 2010-2025 (n=2,930,744), using the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish National Prescription Registry. We estimated annual incidence, prevalence, and, for selected diagnoses, lifetime prevalence, by age and sex, and age- and sex-standardised rates across regions, health councils, and municipalities. We assessed geographic variation using deviations from national means, coefficients of variation, Gini coefficients, and funnel plots. Findings Psychiatric diagnoses and psychotropic medication use increased from 2010 to 2025. The annual prevalence of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) increased from 0.41 to 2.3 per 100 individuals, autism spectrum disorders from 0.20 to 1.2, and melatonin use from 0.14 to 3.0. ADHD and autism spectrum disorders were more prevalent among boys and anxiety disorders among girls. Sertraline use was also more prevalent among girls. Geographic variation was observed across diagnoses and psychotropic medications at regional, health council, and municipal levels. For example, lifetime prevalence of autism ranged from 1.3 to 5.9 per 100 across municipalities, and in 2025 regional coefficients of variation ranged from 0.11 (sertraline) to 0.41 (atomoxetine). Results can be explored in the interactive online tool (https://bupstat.sdu.dk/?lang=en). Interpretation Psychiatric diagnoses and psychotropic medication use increased among Danish children, adolescents, and young adults, with marked geographic variation. Descriptive data cannot establish the causes of this variation, but the findings identify areas for further review and support continued monitoring. Funding Best for Us project (www.bedstforos.dk), funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF24SA0093635) and the Obel Family Foundation (69348).